Forecasting Petroleum Price Increase in Pakistan

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Petroleum Price Increase- On February 16, 2024, it is anticipated that the Government of Pakistan may raise the price of high-speed diesel (HSD) by Rs. 8 per liter.

The official decision is set to be confirmed tomorrow, pending adjustments related to premium rates and exchange rates.

If the proposed adjustments are implemented, the cost of HSD could potentially climb from Rs. 285 to Rs. 293 per liter during the new fortnight, starting February 16. These calculations are based on the current rates of petroleum levy and general sales tax.

Additionally, the government is contemplating maintaining the price of kerosene oil (kero) but might consider increasing the rate of light diesel oil (LDO) by Rs. 2.50 per liter.

There is an expectation that MS petrol rates will remain unchanged in the upcoming fortnightly review.

Read Also: Interbank Market: Pakistan Rupee Faces IMF Rejection and Exchange Rate Shifts

Market trends suggest a possible increase in the Brent price by approximately $1.5 per barrel to $83. Interestingly, the cost of HSD has recently risen by about $3 per barrel during the same period.

It is noteworthy that Pakistan State Oil (PSO) has recently paid a premium of $9.43 per barrel for petrol, a slight decrease from the previous figure of $9.47 recorded in the last fortnight. Similarly, the premium paid for HSD stands at $6.50 per barrel. Furthermore, an estimated exchange rate adjustment of 50 paisas for petrol and Rs. 1.70 per liter for HSD is anticipated.

Petroleum prices in Pakistan have maintained high levels throughout much of the current fiscal year. On January 31, 2024, the price of petrol was increased by Rs. 13.55 per liter to Rs. 272.89 per liter, while the price of high-speed diesel was raised by Rs. 2.75 per liter to Rs. 278.96 per liter

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