First US presidential visit to China since 2017 — Xi warns Taiwan mishandling risks 'collision or conflict'
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US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping began a two-day summit in Beijing on May 14, 2026 — the first US presidential visit to China since 2017. The high-stakes talks cover trade, Taiwan, Iran, artificial intelligence and rare earths. The US delegation includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio alongside business executives Elon Musk (Tesla), Tim Cook (Apple) and Jensen Huang (Nvidia). Trade envoys led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng reached "overall balanced and positive outcomes" at a preparatory summit in South Korea. Trump is pushing for increased Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft, beef and soya beans, while Beijing seeks fewer US technology restrictions.
Xi reserved his sharpest language for Taiwan, calling it "the most important issue" in bilateral relations. His warning was blunt: "Handle it well, the relationship holds; handle it badly, the two countries risk collision or conflict." The stakes are concrete — Washington announced an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan last year, and Beijing is pushing for limits on US arms sales and political restrictions on the island. For Trump, Taiwan is leverage — he discussed the topic with Xi beforehand and views it as connected to the broader trade equation. On Iran, Trump said he would have "a long talk" but emphasized trade remains the central focus. China buys over 80% of Iran's shipped crude exports, giving Beijing significant leverage over Tehran.
The power dynamics at the summit are shaped by hard numbers. China controls roughly 90% of global rare earth refining and has implemented export controls on critical minerals — leverage over America's tech and defence industries. Meanwhile, China purchases over 80% of Iran's shipped crude oil exports, making it the single most important economic lifeline for Tehran during the ongoing conflict. The US maintains restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports to China, another friction point. Previous tariffs exceeded 100% on some goods. The Busan meeting in October 2025 produced a trade truce that Trump rated "12-out-of-10" — but analysts see this Beijing summit as the real test of whether framework becomes action.
Chronology
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Trump and Xi met in Busan, South Korea on October 30, 2025, agreeing to roll back trade restrictions. Trump rated the meeting '12-out-of-10' and characterized it as a G2 summit.
Trade envoys led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng reached 'overall balanced and positive outcomes' at preparatory talks, paving the way for the Beijing summit.
Trump arrives in Beijing for the first US presidential visit to China since 2017. The two-day summit agenda covers trade, Taiwan, Iran, AI and rare earths. US delegation includes Rubio, Musk, Cook and Huang.
Xi reserved his sharpest language for Taiwan, calling it the most important issue and warning that mishandling risks 'collision or conflict'. He asked Trump whether the two powers can avoid the Thucydides Trap.
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Analysts predict three paths from the summit. (1) Limited deal: tariff pauses, purchase commitments on agricultural goods, and a rare earth arrangement — enough for both leaders to claim wins. (2) Deadlock on Taiwan: if Xi pushes too hard on arms-sale limits, the summit could end without joint statements, reverting to pre-Busan tensions. (3) Managed rivalry: experts at SOAS call the meeting "strategic reconnaissance" rather than reconciliation — both leaders want supremacy, making genuine cooperation difficult. The summit runs through Friday, May 15. With US midterm elections approaching, Trump needs visible economic wins. Xi needs relief from US tech restrictions. The question is whether tactical concessions can hold when the strategic competition remains zero-sum.